Okay what do I see in a home dog that previously lost on the road by 12 and is 3-8 in the conference while Northern Colorado is 8-3 in the conference. Well right off the back we have got the revenge factor brewing and as long as the team has an out right shot at coming up with the upset I believe in taking the home dog. In this case I absolutely do think they have that chance and I would not be shocked in fact. Idaho State recently beat Montana @ home. Montanna is #100 in the RPI and N. Colorado is #99. N. Colorado also lost on their home court to Montana and they shot just 32.7% while Idaho State shot 46.7%. Actually it won't shock me to see Idaho State shoot better from the field here today as they did in the first game (48.1% to 41.8%) How did they lose that game if they shot that much better well for one they were -9 in turnover margin -4 in offensive rebound margin and -16 FTA and -15 points from the FT line. That is a lot that Northern Colorado will have to bank on in a game where their opponent is hungry for a win to climb back into the Big Sky race or at least a chance to get into the playoffs.
Idaho State beat Portland State by 8 which is relevant because this is another team the Northern Colorado fell to away from home in conference along with Montanna State which Idaho State fell to by just 3 on the road as +9 dogs. Vegas continues to under estimate this team and so does the public as they are hitting them at 82% where the line opened up at +5 at most shops it's now down to +4.5 in many places.
I believe Idaho State is a decent team and they will pull out a close game down the stretch. They won't turn the ball over as many times on their home court and they won't lose the rebound margin as they haven't in conference play and I don't expect Northern Colorado to have a huge advantage in FT attempts like they did last time. Expect this to be a close game. After all Northern Colorado is 0-7 ATS in their last 7 vs. Big Sky and 2-5 ATS in their last 7 as a road favorite. While Idaho State is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 following an ATS loss and 6-2 ATS in their last 8 as an under dog. They have a SOS of .5064 compared to N. Col's .4513.
